Terms of Reference (TOR) to Conduct a Comprehensive Study on Zambia’s Current Debt Situation, Analysis of the G20 Common Framework and the Fiscal Outlook Post IMF Extended Credit Facility at Civil Society for Poverty Reduction – July 2025

TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR) TO CONDUCT A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY ON ZAMBIA’S CURRENT DEBT SITUATION, ANALYSIS OF THE G20 COMMON FRAMEWORK AND THE FISCAL OUTLOOK POST IMF EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY.

1. INTRODUCTION

The Civil Society for Poverty Reduction (CSPR) is a national network of 104 local civil society actors who are united in the fight against poverty in Zambia. Established in the year 2000 in response to the call by the government for CSO voice in the formulation of the poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs), CSPR works to amplify the voice of marginalized and underrepresented groups in society and strengthens their civic engagement capacities to inform pro-poor national development planning and policy reform processes. CSPR draws its membership across 19 districts in Zambia in 6 provinces namely: Lusaka, Southern, North-Western, Western, Eastern, and Luapula. Thematically, CSPR works across the following themes using a rights-based approach:

I. Economic governance,

II. Climate and environment Justice,

III. Social security and justice,

IV. Civic engagement and decentralization

V. Networking and coalition building.

VI. Youth and women economic empowerment

BACKGROUND:

In response to its 2020 public debt default on the Eurobond and ongoing macroeconomic challenges, Zambia undertook a restructuring process under the G20 common framework supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under a $1.3billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Following a thorough program review, the fifth review of the IMF ECF was completed, unlocking USD 189 million in June 2025. However, with the ECF programme expected to wind down in October 2025, questions remain about the Zambia’s debt levels, fiscal health post debt restructuring, sustainability of reforms under the ECF and the future direction of Zambia’s debt management after the ECF. CSPR is implementing a project titled “Advocacy for transparency through enhanced feminism and women participation in public debt management in Zambia.” CSPR is committed to fostering effective dialogue on Zambia’s fiscal challenges and opportunities related to public debt and its implications for socio-economic development. CSPR seeks to engage a qualified economist/public finance expert to conduct a comprehensive study on Zambia’s current debt situation, including an analysis of the G20 Common Framework and Zambia’s fiscal position during the IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF), as well as potential fiscal risks after the ECF.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The primary objectives of the study are as follows:

• To provide an overview of Zambia’s current debt situation, including key trends and statistics.
• To analyze the G20 Common Framework’s relevance and implications for Zambia’s debt management and restructuring.
• To evaluate Zambia’s fiscal position post-IMF Extended Credit Facility, highlighting potential risks and opportunities for sustainable development.
• To present findings and recommendations

SCOPE OF WORK

The consultant will be responsible for the following tasks:

• Conduct thorough research on Zambia’s current debt levels, including domestic and external debt
• Provide analysis on how much debt has been contracted , the creditors and determine where these funds have been invested in the period under study
• Analyze the G20 Common Framework and its implications for Zambia’s debt sustainability and management.
• Assess Zambia’s fiscal position after implementing the IMF Extended Credit Facility, including revenue generation, expenditure patterns, and structural reforms.
• Prepare a detailed report summarizing the findings, conclusions, and actionable recommendations.
• Develop a presentation for the National Debt Indaba round table that effectively communicates key insights and encourages discussion among stakeholders.

METHODOLOGY

The consultant will:

• Utilize qualitative and quantitative research methods, including data collection from government reports, IMF documents, and other relevant publications.
• Engage with key stakeholders, including government officials, economic experts, and civil society organizations, to gather diverse perspectives.
• Ensure that findings are evidence-based and grounded in the current economic context.

DELIVERABLES

The consultant will produce the following deliverables:

1. A comprehensive research report summarizing the findings and analysis.

2. Present findings, including visual aids and key talking points.

3. An executive summary of the report for distribution to participants at the round table.

TIMELINE

The candidate is expected to complete the task within 15 working days, to be taken from the 25th of July to the 15th of August 2025.

QUALIFICATIONS

The ideal candidate will possess:

• A Master’s degree or higher in Economics, Finance, or a related field.
• Proven experience in conducting economic and public finance research, particularly regarding national debt and fiscal policies.
• Strong analytical skills and familiarity with the G20 Common Framework and IMF policies.
• Excellent presentation and communication skills.

APPLICATION PROCESS

Interested candidates should submit the following:

• A detailed CV outlining relevant experience.
• A technical proposal including a brief outline of the approach to the study, timeline, and proposed cost.
• Evidence of previous work related to economic analysis or public finance.

FINANCIAL PROPOSAL

A financial proposal should be included in the application, specifying the professional consultancy fee.

Submit your application to cspr@csprzambia.org with a copy to the subject line “STUDY ON THE STATE OF PUBLIC DEBT IN ZAMBIA “

DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION OF EOI: 20TH JULY  2025.